Scores updated daily · Latest reading
Leaftix Climate Sentinel — El Niño 2026 · Quarterly Track
El Niño 2026 is warming the ocean. Nine harvests are already paying for it.
Since June, the Pacific has been running the strongest El Niño since 2015 — a slow-motion signal now reaching coffee farms in Brazil, maize fields in South Africa, and wheat country in Australia. Climate Sentinel reads that signal in real time, months before it reaches a market report.
This isn't a weather forecast. It's a supply chain forecast.
El Niño doesn't rain down on crops directly. It shifts sea-surface temperature across the tropical Pacific, and that shift bends the rivers of air that decide where rain falls for the next year — sometimes flooding a region, sometimes starving it dry. The shift starts in the ocean months before anyone sees it in a field.
By the time it shows up as a bad harvest, it has already shown up as a satellite reading. That gap — between the ocean signal and the market reaction — is what Climate Sentinel is built to close.
A crop doesn't care what caused the drought. It only cares whether the rain came when it needed it.
Where El Niño 2026 risk is landing right now
Every score below is generated the same way: satellite ocean and rainfall data, matched against each crop's actual growing calendar, for the specific region that grows it. Ranked by exposure, not alphabetically.
Arabica Coffee
Minas Gerais & Alta Mogiana, Brazil
Rainfall has come in more than a third short of normal across Brazil's coffee belt, right as this year's cherries need it most.
# coffee-brazilWhite & Yellow Maize
Free State & Mpumalanga, South Africa
A stubborn high-pressure ridge has blocked the pre-season rain Southern Africa's maize triangle depends on before planting.
# maize-south-africaSoybeans
Rio Grande do Sul & Paraná, Brazil
The opposite problem: an El Niño-charged jet stream is bringing too much rain, waterlogging fields at the wrong stage of growth.
# soybeans-brazilArabica Specialty Coffee
Oromia & Southern Highlands, Ethiopia
A warming Indian Ocean is pulling moisture away from the highlands that grow some of the world's most prized specialty beans.
# coffee-ethiopiaCocoa
Guinean Rainforest Belt, Ivory Coast & Ghana
Rain has been erratic and often absent across the belt that supplies most of the world's chocolate.
# cocoa-west-africaWheat
Murray-Darling Basin, Australia
A weakened Walker circulation has left one of the world's major wheat basins under sustained moisture stress.
# wheat-australiaHow we turn an ocean reading into a crop score
Three steps, run every day, for every tracked region.
Read the ocean and sky
NOAA and CHIRPS satellites track sea-surface temperature and rainfall across the tropics daily — the same data meteorologists use to forecast El Niño itself.
Match it to the calendar
A dry month means nothing to a soybean field that isn't flowering yet, and everything to one that is. We weight every reading against each crop's actual growth stage.
Score the exposure
The result is one number, 0 to 100, per crop and region — updated daily, not once a season, and traceable back to the original satellite reading behind it.
El Niño 2026, explained for the supply chain
Short answers on how this El Niño moves through crops, regions and markets — and how Climate Sentinel tracks it.
What is El Niño 2026 and how does it affect crops?
El Niño 2026 is the strongest El Niño to develop since 2015. It warms the central and eastern tropical Pacific, which shifts global rainfall patterns. That shift brings drought to some farming regions and flooding to others — affecting coffee, maize, soybeans, cocoa and wheat months before harvests begin.
Which crops and regions are most at risk from El Niño 2026?
As of September 2026 the highest exposure sits with Arabica coffee in Brazil (100/100), white and yellow maize in South Africa (100/100), soybeans in Brazil (98/100), specialty coffee in Ethiopia (94/100), cocoa in Ivory Coast and Ghana (93/100), and wheat in Australia's Murray-Darling basin (88/100).
How does Leaftix Climate Sentinel calculate crop risk scores?
The tool combines NOAA sea-surface temperature data and UCSB CHIRPS rainfall data, then weights each reading against the crop's actual growing calendar for its specific region. The result is a single 0–100 exposure score per crop, computed daily and traceable to the original satellite reading.
How often is the crop risk data updated?
Every tracked region is scored daily. Satellite ocean and rainfall data refresh continuously, so the risk scores reflect current conditions rather than a single seasonal outlook.
Where does the satellite data behind the scores come from?
Leaftix Climate Sentinel sources its data from NOAA, UCSB CHIRPS, USDA/GEOGLAM and Google Earth Engine. The dashboard is public and free to explore.
See the live signal
The dashboard behind these numbers is public and updates daily. Explore the risk map, the full commodity list, and the methodology behind every score.